投资公理, 这只股票的股息很高,就像我祖父的La-Z-Boy躺椅一样老旧1. 无论你是一个普通的投资者, 或者是精通投资分析的原理和基本原理的人, you have most likely heard (multiple times) that phrase used in conjunction with a reason to invest in a stock.
Using the dividend amount (size) or the percentage yield as the sole justification for owning a stock, 交易所买卖基金(ETF), 共同基金, 或者投资策略充其量是被误导了, 在最糟糕的时候, 会给投资者带来巨大的机会成本吗. 在本文中, 我将举例说明一些关于纯股息投资的误解, and why using it as the sole underpinning of an investment thesis can lead to sub-optimal outcomes. I’ll also discuss how using dividends as a component of a broader investment strategy can be a tailwind for asset allocations and investors.
一个常见的重复, especially among those who’s peak earning power came of age and/or largest influences were adjacent to the 40s, 50s, 60s, 和70年代, 好的股息就等于好的公司/股票吗. 这是有道理的, as a common way publicly-listed companies compensated their equity holders during the 1940-1979 time period was through consistent and steadily increasing dividends. 投资者习惯于关注股息,而不是总回报.2 下面的图表3, 由惠灵顿管理公司和哈特福德基金公司的人在今年早些时候产生的, details the percentage return contribution of dividends (blue bar) relative to the overall return of the S&P 500. 股息贡献了美国股市67%和73%的总业绩&P 500 in the 1940s and 1970s respectively (with 30% in the 1950s and 44% in the 1960s for good measure!), it is easy to see how investors can become “anchored” in the belief that dividends are an essential ingredient in making a stock “good.”
就像生活中的大多数事情一样, the markets and publicly-listed companies have evolved in how they compensate and create wealth for their stakeholders. 如上图所示,股息占总收益的百分比有所下降&500指数的总回报率始于20世纪80年代, 仍远低于1940-1979年间的水平.4 特别是股票回购和股东收益的概念5 (股息率% +股票回购净额变化%)开始受到关注. 应税投资者, the concept of a company buying back stock in the open market (thereby increasing an investor’s share of earnings and ownership of the company) was a more palatable and capital-efficient compensation tool than receiving a dividend that would be 税ed at the federal, 状态6,以及地方层面.7 Whether share buybacks are a net positive for investors is a subject much too intense for this writing; for those interested, 我建议阅读AQR的Cliff Asness撰写的白皮书, 斯科特·理查森, 和Todd Hazelkorn,在脚注中有链接. 8
在很多情况下, using a “dividend-only” filter omits several key components: 1) How is the company paying for its dividend, 通过自由现金流或债务融资? 2) Would investors be better off in the long run if the company eschewed paying a dividend and/or growing its dividend in favor of reinvesting these funds in its business? 3)公司是否应该从战略和/或战术上减少股票数量, 从而以更省税的方式增加利益相关者的所有权百分比?
随着公司开始更广泛地关注股东收益(或总回报),e.g., 将现金流再投资于研发, 收购, 偿还债务), investors who pursued an investment strategy solely focused on stocks that paid a “good” or “big” dividend did so at a significant opportunity cost to their portfolios and their overall wealth. 想想过去的十年, which have encapsulated one of the longest and largest bull markets in domestic equities ever (and the largest of the last 30+ years); the S&标普500 ETF(股票代码:SPY)的年化回报率为+ 14%.7% vs. +12.3% for the Vanguard High Dividend Yield ETF (symbol: VYM), an annualized outperformance of +2.4%.9 Whether you are a young investor with a long time horizon or an investor that is near retirement, 错过2个.4% compounded annually over ten years represents a significant risk to the accumulation of wealth over time.
While deploying a “dividend-only” investment filter can lead to significant opportunity cost and investment concentration (no exposure to low or no dividend payers like Amazon, 脸谱网, 微软, 苹果), utilizing dividends as a component of an investment philosophy/strategy can be a tailwind for asset allocations and investors.
下面的图表显示了在美国再投资股息(和复利资本)的力量&P 500与投资者只获得价格回报(增值). 在美国投资10万美元&1月1日,带股息的p500再投资(绿线), 1970, 变成了2美元,268,947 as of June 30th of this year; the same $100,在美国投资1000美元&P 500只收到价格回报(红线)变成505美元,截至6月30日,共有469人, 相差1美元,763,478.10 复利的力量, 再投资股息产生的增量额外收益, 对初始资金产生强大的飞轮效应.
分散投资是投资中唯一免费的午餐, and investors have been rewarded over time by deploying portfolios that were not concentrated in any one strategy. There was a time when dividends represented a significant source of investment return for investors. 然而, 投资市场从来不是静态的, 随着公司改变了对利益相关者的补偿方式, prudent investors and investment advisors need to approach markets and stocks with flexibility that meets the current market paradigm. Dividends as a component to a broader investment strategy can be a powerful wealth accumulation tool (as evidenced in the chart above) but used as the sole investment filter/strategy, 是否会导致业绩不佳并给投资者带来巨大的机会成本.
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1 我的祖父, 约翰·帕特里克·卢克雷齐, 是骄傲的第一代意大利裔美国人, 17岁参军并在二战期间服役的人, 是钻石三叶草酒吧的管道工, 在钻石三叶草破产后开了一辆18轮卡车. 他爱他的家人, 一种冰镇蓝带啤酒, 还有他心爱的La-Z-Boy躺椅,除了他谁也不能坐. 过. 想你,老爷子!
2 总回报=价格增值+股息
3 http://www.hartfordfunds.com/dam/en/docs/pub/whitepapers/WP106.pdf
4 Save for the 2000-2009 time period where the dividend made up all of the return as the Dot-Com bubble bursting combined with September 11th and the fallout from the Great 金融 Crisis, 导致美国的年化价格回报率为负&P 500点对点.
5 http://osam.com/Commentary/shareholder-yield-a-differentiated-approach-to-an-efficient-market
6 有些州没有州所得税, 佛罗里达, 德州, 华盛顿州最为突出.
7 股票回购目前是免税的, but there have been several proposals by Democratic lawmakers to create some mechanism to 税 these transactions. 在撰写本文时,这些提议似乎都没有吸引力.
8 http://www.aqr.com/的见解/研究/Journal-Article/Buyback-Derangement-Syndrome
9 计算是使用晨星直接完成的.
10 使用Morningstar Direct从1970年1月1日到2021年6月30日使用S&以美元和美元计算的500英镑总回报率&500美元价格回报.